 # Probability Theory

Mohammad Z. Raqab
Department of Mathematics
University of Jordan
Amman 11942
Jordan

The main objective of this lesson is to motivate students’ thoughts and get them excited about some probability concepts. The aim is to present probability theory in as simple a manner as possible. It is hoped that students will learn that probability theory is a basic tool for handling an uncertain future and making a decision. The prerequisites necessary for this lesson include basic algebra and knowledge of the definitions of the following terms: sample space; events; probability; the multiplicative law of probability; marginal, conditional, and joint probabilities. The video part of this lesson will take 30 minutes, and the necessary supplies include: a poster showing the 3-door problem; empty envelopes as well as a monetary bill (for example, a \$20 bill); and a simple tree (one stem with two branches, other two stems with one branch for each). Examples of in-class activities for breaks are: conducting the real-life three-envelope experiment when the student does not change his/her mind and conducting the same experiment when the student does change his/her mind. Students will also learn to develop and work with probability trees.

Mohammad Z. Raqab is professor of statistics at the University of Jordan. He completed his B.Sc. (1981) in mathematics at the University of Jordan, M. Sc. (1989) and PhD (1992) in statistics at Ohio State University, Ohio State, USA. His areas of interests: Statistical Models Involving Ordered Random Variables, Optimal Evaluations of Statistical Functionals, Biostatistical Applications on Censoring Data, Reliability Theory, Intensive Computer Studies, Information Technology and E-learning.Read more about Professor Raqab on his web site at: www1.ju.edu.jo/mraqab. Read Teacher's Guide to this video lesson (PDF format) Read Teacher's Guide to this video lesson (Word format) Download Three Door Problem poster for this video lesson (PDF format) Download hand-out of Sample Probability Tree of this video lesson (PDF format) Download hand-out of Sample Probability Tree of this video lesson (Word format)

This site presents extensive online resources about the Monty Hall Problem provided by the Math Forum at Drexel University
http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html

This site, provided by Wolfram MathWorld, presents an introduction to the Monty Hall Problem along with demonstration simulations of this problem, the Monty Hall Paradox and standardized and generalized versions of the Monty Hall Problem.
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/MontyHallProblem.html

This site, provided by Shodor, allows the user to simulate the Monty Hall Game with up to 100 doors in which the user chooses a door, and then all but one door is opened to reveal a stinking pig. The player must then decide to stick with the original choice or change.
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdvancedMontyHall/ Written Transcript of this video lesson (PDF format) Written Transcript of this video lesson (Word)
Title Language Format
Probability Theory (Arabic, QuickTime) Arabic Quicktime Download
Probability Theory (Arabic, mp4) Arabic MPEG 4 Download
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